Category Archives: Views

Troika Dialog: the best investment bank in Russia ?

By Ivan Anderzhanov Troika Dialog has been awarded the gong of best investment bank in Russia in the recent Global Finance awards. In a statement, Troika said it currently leads Russian debt capital market league tables in terms of volume, number of issues and market share. Last we checked, VTB Capital may have had some… Continue Reading

COMMENT: Government mulls protectionist moves to protect industries from ruble strength

By Vladimir Osakovsky, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis and Research at Unicredit Securities Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said that the Russian government might raise import tariffs and subsidize industries to keep Russian industry competitive, Bloomberg reports. He said that the ruble is likely to appreciate over the next several years and the government… Continue Reading

VTB to advertise on the BBC

By Ivan Anderzhanov In a further sign of a thawing in Anglo-Russo relations, VTB Capital is to sponsor a major series looking at Russian business to be shown on the venerable British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC). The series, which will begin transmitting this month, will focus on business across Russia, examining  people, companies and products. VTB… Continue Reading

COMMENT: What happens with Russian market in May & June 2010 ?

By Mark Rubinstein, Deputy Head of Research at IFC Metropol Traditionally, May and June are not the strongest months for the Russian market. In the past four years, only once, in 2008, the market was able to demonstrate growth over this period. But I think that this year will be an “exception” again, and the… Continue Reading

Investors ready to jump on the Russia sovereign Eurobond wagon

By Andrei Skvarsky Russian finance officials are meeting investors in London and Singapore today to market Russia’s first sovereign Eurobond issue since 1998, with analysts saying there is a high appetite for the issue as the risk of a Russian default on loans is at an all-time low. Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Russia’s Alfa… Continue Reading

Inflows into Russian funds/ETFs continue for the eighth straight week

Vladimir Kuznetsov, Equity Analyst from Unicredit Securities Inflows into Russia-dedicated funds and ETFs continued for the eighth straight week  in the week to 7 April and reached USD 1.48bn YTD, EPFR data shows. The recent week’s inflow totaled USD 116mn and was completely provided by equity funds,  as ETFs showed a slight outflow of USD… Continue Reading

COMMENT: Kazakhstani non-performing loans continue to decline

By Rustam Botashev, Equity Analyst at UniCredit Securities Kazakhstan’s Financial Supervisory Agency (FSA) published preliminary banking statistics for 2009. Our view: The banking sector’s losses for the year totalled KZT 2,837bn ($19.1bn), or KZT 127bn ($0.9bn) excluding the two defaulted banks (BTA Bank and Alliance Bank). Retail loans declined by 4.8% yoy and corporate loans… Continue Reading

Emerging Manager Firm Shares Fundamentals of Success

By James LaDue from Emerging Manager Focus SCO Capital Partners fund managers have been posting overall gains throughout the past 3 years. I wanted to get more information from the firm based on its success as an emerging manager firm. When I contacted the organization, I was put in touch with John Doss, partner. Emerging… Continue Reading

Key investment themes for 2009 and outlook for 2010

Jerome Booth, Head of Research at Ashmore Investment Management comments on the global backdrop for emerging markets over the past year and forecasts an encouraging future for EM asset classes. Reviewing some of the key themes in 2009: · Whilst there was global disruption to cross-border finance, the main negative impact on selected emerging countries… Continue Reading

Goldman goes long (and late) on Russian equities

By Marcus Williams Research strategists at Goldman Sachs are going long on Russian equities in 2010 on the basis that the country’s growth rate will rebound sharply. Goldman is forecasting that real GDP will rebound to +4.5% in 2010 and accelerate later in the year after a steep 9.5% decline this year. Compared with other… Continue Reading

COMMENT Russia 2010: Worth A Tactical Look

By James Beadle, Global & Emerging Market Strategist, Russia’s under-performance relative to its BRIC peers is justified and well-explained. Yet, it also creates upside potential. Russia is beginning a new development phase, which creates opportunity and makes it an attractive buy for 2010. The potential for decisive progress is limited and many systematic problems… Continue Reading

Exclusive: LSE Russian team sees future for dual listings

By Jason Corcoran in Moscow The London Stock Exchange believes dual Russian stock listings in Moscow and London will endure in spite of plans to curb the amount firms can sell overseas. The new rules, which are due to come into force from January 1, aim to restrict domestic companies from running to foreign exchanges… Continue Reading

COMMENT: Russian banks: back to the future

By Rustam Botashev, equities analyst at UniCredit Securities Pre-crisis profits already priced in for VTB, but Sberbank and VZRZ still have room for positive surprises VTB promises to reach pre-crisis profits in 2010; we see this as possible for all banks under coverage. Bankers are suddenly talking about making solid earnings in 2010E; VTB even… Continue Reading

COMMENT: Russian Reform – A Realistic Prospect?

By James Beadle, Global & Emerging Market Strategist, Recent reports of Kremlin-infighting are partially accurate. Expect sharp swings in investor sentiment, creating good opportunities to make money, but no radical changes to Russia’s economic & political system. Although the mass-media remain sceptical, in-depth analytical sources and business intelligence groups – such as Stratfor –… Continue Reading

COMMENT: Tymoshenko announces resolution roadmap for Ukraine's two large banks

By Yevhen Hrebeniuk, Senior Analyst at Troika Dialog Ukraine Ukraine’s Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has outlined the resolution approaches that are set to be approved by the cabinet and applied to the two remaining large banks that have yet to be recapitalized: Nadra Bank and Ukrprombank. The government will transfer Ukrprombank’s deposits and valuable assets… Continue Reading

COMMENT: Government expects the start of economic recovery in 2H09

Vladimir Osakovsky,  Head of Strategy and Research at Unicredit Securities at Moscow. Russian Minister of Economic Development Elvira Nabiullina said that the Russian economy is ready to recover and expects real GDP to grow by 3.9%-4.5% hoh in 2H09, Vedomosti reports. Nabiullina’s comments come after similar optimistic statements from First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov… Continue Reading

COMMENT: Watch Kazakhstan for Russian banks’ path out of crisis

By Rustam Botashev, Equity Analyst at Unicredit Securities Total non-performing loans (NPLs) in Kazakhstan reached 30.8% as of 1 July, but a more manageable 14.4% excluding BTA and Alliance, and we expect a gradual economic recovery to keep banks from being washed away in an NPL flood. The aggregate 30.8% figure is skewed by the… Continue Reading

COMMENT: Russia’s equity market – rising like a phoenix

Angelika Millendorfer, Head of Emerging Markets Equities at Raiffeisen Capital Management. Russia’s equity market was one of the biggest losers last year. But since the beginning of 2009, it has been one of the top performers even though a strong correction swept the market in June and July. So far prices are up by around… Continue Reading

Blog: Investors shy away from Russia's bubbling equity market

Investors fishing for emerging markets prefer to cast their line for commodities in Brazil rather than cast into Russia’s waters. The latest data last week from Emerging Portfolio Fund Research indicate new inflows into funds covering Brazil worth $462m while Russia funds reported a measly intake of $18m. While capital flows into Russia-dedicated funds dipped… Continue Reading

BRIC banks being built to last

Banks in the BRIC world of emerging markets are in better nick than their counterparts in the US and Europe, according to Allianz Global Investors, one of the world’s largest active fund managers. Allianz, a investment subsidiary of the German insurer with £850bn under management, said the lack of exposure to the toxic assets plaguing… Continue Reading

Blog: The Revolution is dead, long live the USSR

The respective orange, rose and tulip revolutions of Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan have wilted less than six years since they first blossomed. The 2005 Tulip Revolution, which overthrew the government of President Askar Akayev in Kyrgyzstan, did not transform this Central Asian republic into a blooming garden. The same is true of Georgia and Ukraine,… Continue Reading