Category Archives: Views

WEAFER COMMENT: A Bellerophonic Message

By Chris Weafer, Chief Strategist at ING in Moscow. There continues to be only one key event in global markets and that is the US debt deal. As this note goes out, there is optimism that a deal will be reached either this evening or tomorrow. That should allow for a modest relief rally in… Continue Reading

Equity fund flows: Investors remain optimistic and sidelined

By Chris Weafer, Chief Strategist at ING in Moscow. The total volume of money invested into emerging market (EM) funds last week was relatively low, even for midsummer, as investors prudently remained on the sidelines while waiting for a resolution of the US debt talks. But, although low, the net flow remained positive as a… Continue Reading

Russia’s AMT Bank struck off

By Andrei Skvarsky. Moscow’s AMT Bank, until 2009 co-owned by major Kazakh lender BTA, has had its licence annulled by Russia’s Central Bank with effect from today. AMT has been failing to comply with “federal laws regulating banking activities” and presenting false accounts, the Central Bank said in a statement. UniCredit analyst Rustam Botashev said… Continue Reading

GOLDMAN SACHS COMMENT: Who would you want in EMU?

 By Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Western sovereign debt issues rolled on again last week, with fierce competition between the US and the Euro Area for attention. As President Obama and Congress struggle to reach a budget compromise ahead of the debt ceiling deadline, two ratingagencies made it clear that failure to make… Continue Reading

GOLDMAN SACHS COMMENT: A messy start to July

By Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Just when it seemed things were shifting back to the optimists’ camp, Friday’s news about the state of the world threw another spanner in the works. In addition to a very disappointing US nonfarm payrolls report, Italy came into the spotlight in the European crisis. Subsequently, the earliest of the June… Continue Reading

GUEST COMMENT: Khodorkovsky Trial Exposes Reform Progress

By James Beadle from Since 2003 former Yukos executives Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev have been incarcerated in Russia on charges of tax evasion. At present, as their eight year stint enters its final stages, the two are on trial once more, charged with stealing millions of tonnes of oil (reputedly the same oil… Continue Reading

Fund Flows: Sentiment is Finely (Dangerously) Balanced

By Chris Weafer, Chief Strategist at UralSib Capital Waiting for clarity. Fund investors appear to have taken a sanguine view of global market volatility over the past week. They have remained largely on the sidelines while waiting for a clearer picture to emerge. According to the data supplied by EPFR Global, in the week ended… Continue Reading

Troika Dialog: the best investment bank in Russia ?

By Ivan Anderzhanov Troika Dialog has been awarded the gong of best investment bank in Russia in the recent Global Finance awards. In a statement, Troika said it currently leads Russian debt capital market league tables in terms of volume, number of issues and market share. Last we checked, VTB Capital may have had some… Continue Reading

COMMENT: Government mulls protectionist moves to protect industries from ruble strength

By Vladimir Osakovsky, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis and Research at Unicredit Securities Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said that the Russian government might raise import tariffs and subsidize industries to keep Russian industry competitive, Bloomberg reports. He said that the ruble is likely to appreciate over the next several years and the government… Continue Reading

VTB to advertise on the BBC

By Ivan Anderzhanov In a further sign of a thawing in Anglo-Russo relations, VTB Capital is to sponsor a major series looking at Russian business to be shown on the venerable British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC). The series, which will begin transmitting this month, will focus on business across Russia, examining  people, companies and products. VTB… Continue Reading

COMMENT: What happens with Russian market in May & June 2010 ?

By Mark Rubinstein, Deputy Head of Research at IFC Metropol Traditionally, May and June are not the strongest months for the Russian market. In the past four years, only once, in 2008, the market was able to demonstrate growth over this period. But I think that this year will be an “exception” again, and the… Continue Reading

Investors ready to jump on the Russia sovereign Eurobond wagon

By Andrei Skvarsky Russian finance officials are meeting investors in London and Singapore today to market Russia’s first sovereign Eurobond issue since 1998, with analysts saying there is a high appetite for the issue as the risk of a Russian default on loans is at an all-time low. Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Russia’s Alfa… Continue Reading

Inflows into Russian funds/ETFs continue for the eighth straight week

Vladimir Kuznetsov, Equity Analyst from Unicredit Securities Inflows into Russia-dedicated funds and ETFs continued for the eighth straight week  in the week to 7 April and reached USD 1.48bn YTD, EPFR data shows. The recent week’s inflow totaled USD 116mn and was completely provided by equity funds,  as ETFs showed a slight outflow of USD… Continue Reading

COMMENT: Kazakhstani non-performing loans continue to decline

By Rustam Botashev, Equity Analyst at UniCredit Securities Kazakhstan’s Financial Supervisory Agency (FSA) published preliminary banking statistics for 2009. Our view: The banking sector’s losses for the year totalled KZT 2,837bn ($19.1bn), or KZT 127bn ($0.9bn) excluding the two defaulted banks (BTA Bank and Alliance Bank). Retail loans declined by 4.8% yoy and corporate loans… Continue Reading

Emerging Manager Firm Shares Fundamentals of Success

By James LaDue from Emerging Manager Focus SCO Capital Partners fund managers have been posting overall gains throughout the past 3 years. I wanted to get more information from the firm based on its success as an emerging manager firm. When I contacted the organization, I was put in touch with John Doss, partner. Emerging… Continue Reading

Key investment themes for 2009 and outlook for 2010

Jerome Booth, Head of Research at Ashmore Investment Management comments on the global backdrop for emerging markets over the past year and forecasts an encouraging future for EM asset classes. Reviewing some of the key themes in 2009: · Whilst there was global disruption to cross-border finance, the main negative impact on selected emerging countries… Continue Reading

Goldman goes long (and late) on Russian equities

By Marcus Williams Research strategists at Goldman Sachs are going long on Russian equities in 2010 on the basis that the country’s growth rate will rebound sharply. Goldman is forecasting that real GDP will rebound to +4.5% in 2010 and accelerate later in the year after a steep 9.5% decline this year. Compared with other… Continue Reading

COMMENT Russia 2010: Worth A Tactical Look

By James Beadle, Global & Emerging Market Strategist, Russia’s under-performance relative to its BRIC peers is justified and well-explained. Yet, it also creates upside potential. Russia is beginning a new development phase, which creates opportunity and makes it an attractive buy for 2010. The potential for decisive progress is limited and many systematic problems… Continue Reading

Exclusive: LSE Russian team sees future for dual listings

By Jason Corcoran in Moscow The London Stock Exchange believes dual Russian stock listings in Moscow and London will endure in spite of plans to curb the amount firms can sell overseas. The new rules, which are due to come into force from January 1, aim to restrict domestic companies from running to foreign exchanges… Continue Reading

COMMENT: Russian banks: back to the future

By Rustam Botashev, equities analyst at UniCredit Securities Pre-crisis profits already priced in for VTB, but Sberbank and VZRZ still have room for positive surprises VTB promises to reach pre-crisis profits in 2010; we see this as possible for all banks under coverage. Bankers are suddenly talking about making solid earnings in 2010E; VTB even… Continue Reading

COMMENT: Russian Reform – A Realistic Prospect?

By James Beadle, Global & Emerging Market Strategist, Recent reports of Kremlin-infighting are partially accurate. Expect sharp swings in investor sentiment, creating good opportunities to make money, but no radical changes to Russia’s economic & political system. Although the mass-media remain sceptical, in-depth analytical sources and business intelligence groups – such as Stratfor –… Continue Reading

COMMENT: Tymoshenko announces resolution roadmap for Ukraine's two large banks

By Yevhen Hrebeniuk, Senior Analyst at Troika Dialog Ukraine Ukraine’s Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has outlined the resolution approaches that are set to be approved by the cabinet and applied to the two remaining large banks that have yet to be recapitalized: Nadra Bank and Ukrprombank. The government will transfer Ukrprombank’s deposits and valuable assets… Continue Reading

COMMENT: Government expects the start of economic recovery in 2H09

Vladimir Osakovsky,  Head of Strategy and Research at Unicredit Securities at Moscow. Russian Minister of Economic Development Elvira Nabiullina said that the Russian economy is ready to recover and expects real GDP to grow by 3.9%-4.5% hoh in 2H09, Vedomosti reports. Nabiullina’s comments come after similar optimistic statements from First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov… Continue Reading

COMMENT: Watch Kazakhstan for Russian banks’ path out of crisis

By Rustam Botashev, Equity Analyst at Unicredit Securities Total non-performing loans (NPLs) in Kazakhstan reached 30.8% as of 1 July, but a more manageable 14.4% excluding BTA and Alliance, and we expect a gradual economic recovery to keep banks from being washed away in an NPL flood. The aggregate 30.8% figure is skewed by the… Continue Reading