By Andrei Skvarsky. A survey by a Deutsche Börse-owned research firm suggests the international fallout from Russia’s annexation of Crimea has brought a lot of pessimism to the Russian business community. {{{?}}} With the looming threat of tough anti-Russian sanctions, business confidence among Russian companies has dropped in March to its lowest level in three… Continue Reading
Category Archives: Views
Deutsche Börse analysts: consumer sentiment in Russia plunges
By Andrei Skvarsky. A Deutsche Börse-owned research company has said a survey it took in February before the crisis in Ukraine reached its disastrous proportions showed consumer sentiment in Russia to have slumped to its lowest level since March 2013. {{{?}}} Previous surveys by MNI Indicators showed consumer optimism to have risen in December and… Continue Reading
Markit: emerging markets still “downbeat” about future
By Andrei Skvarsky. Global financial information provider Markit says a survey it made last month suggests emerging markets remain “downbeat” about the future. {{{?}}} “Improving confidence and post-crisis high capex and hiring intentions in the developed world contrast markedly with ongoing downbeat expectations for the year ahead across the emerging markets,” the London-headquartered company said… Continue Reading
Lombard Odier banker: Sberbank, VTB to survive Western sanctions
By Andrei Skvarsky. A top executive at Lombard Odier, one of Europe’s biggest private banking firms, has argued that Sberbank, VTB and other Russian state-controlled banks would most likely be targets of potential Western sanctions against Russia because of its invasion of Crimea but that the lenders would stay afloat without major damage. {{{?}}} Domestic… Continue Reading
EXCLUSIVE: Chief economist at Deutsche Börse-owned firm argues what reforms Russia needs
In this interview with EmergingMarkets.me, Philip Uglow, chief economist at MNI Indicators, a Deutsche Börse-owned research firm, explains what he believes Russia needs to do to achieve sustainable growth. {{{?}}} You have said Russia needs structural changes to its growth model. Could you outline what specifically such changes should be? Russia’s weak business climate remains… Continue Reading
Deutsche Börse group: consumer confidence in Russia rises
By Andrei Skvarsky. A Deutsche Börse-owned think tank says consumer confidence in Russia went up in January after slumping late last year but expresses suspicion that the upturn will be short-lived. {{{?}}} But the current Winter Olympics in Sochi were the likeliest reason for consumer optimism rising for the second consecutive month in January to the highest level… Continue Reading
EAST CAPITAL COMMENT: Confessions of an emerging market optimist
By Marcus Svedberg, Chief Economist, East Capital.* Arguably it is not very easy to be an emerging market (EM) optimist these days. It seems like almost everything and everyone is against the group of markets that were once the darlings of investors. Tapering is the most obvious cause for pessimism and is the most important… Continue Reading
EAST CAPITAL COMMENT: Was January’s emerging markets scare justified?
By Peter Elam Hakansson, Chairman and Head of Public Equity investment team, East Capital.* The first month of the year turned out to be a very difficult one for emerging markets, with a fear of tapering by the US Federal reserve and a slowdown of the Chinese economy leading to a sharp sell-off of emerging… Continue Reading
TURKEY: When it rains, it pours – EAST CAPITAL COMMENT
By Emre Akcakmak, Portfolio Manager, East Capital.* It was not so long ago that Turkey was the darling of international investors. Political stability, a young population, a fast-growing economy, declining inflation and a series of rating upgrades encouraged investors to buy Turkish equities and pushed Borsa Istanbul to all-time highs by May 2013 – with… Continue Reading
Lombard Odier hails China opting for “better quality” growth
By Andrei Skvarsky. Switzerland’s Lombard Odier, one of Europe’s largest private banking firms, says declining Chinese growth is one of its major concerns from the investment point of view but hails what it sees as China’s determination to move to“better quality” growth, namely from investment-led to consumption-based growth. {{{?}}} Among other things, the Geneva-based bank… Continue Reading
GUEST COMMENT: CIS/Ukraine macro-politics: investor scenarios
{{{?}}} By Chris Weafer, Founding Partner, Macro-Advisory, Moscow. Chris Weafer’s career includes top research positions with Sberbank, Troika Dialog, UralSib, Alfa Bank and NatWest. Mr Weafer, who has worked in Russia for more than fifteen years, is the author of a wide variety of articles about Russia, Central Asia and the trend in macro oil. He… Continue Reading
EXCLUSIVE: MNI Indicators chief economist Philip Uglow comments on Russia’s economy in interview with EmergingMarkets.me
How would you explain Russia’s current slowdown? Can it be that the global crisis has finally got to Russia – it seems that what happens in Western economies takes a while to reach Russia? {{{?}}} The global economic crisis has clearly had a negative impact on Russia – there’s no getting away from that. Russia… Continue Reading
MNI Indicators: Russian companies’ confidence jumps up
By Andrei Skvarsky. Deutsche Boerse’s data-providing subsidiary MNI Indicators says business confidence among some of Russia’s largest companies bounced back sharply in January from a “record low” in December but warns that the upturn may be temporary. {{{?}}} The MNI Russia Business Indicator rocketed to 57.9 in January from 45.5 in December, to register its… Continue Reading
VTB chief: West’s Russian policies run against globalisation trends
By Andrei Skvarsky. The president of state-controlled VTB Group, Russia’s second-largest bank, has accused the West of a “patronising”, arrogant and standoffish attitude to Russia, which he argues is not the way to behave in these times of globalisation. {{{?}}} “It sometimes seems that politicians of countries that ought to have much in common are… Continue Reading
Royal Bank of Scotland subsidiary says BRIC obsolete term
By Andrei Skvarsky. Coutts, a lender owned by Royal Bank of Scotland, argues that the 13-year-old BRIC term is obsolete. {{{?}}} The economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China are much too different in size and performance to justify seeing the four nations as a distinctive group. Moreover, there is a bunch of other emerging… Continue Reading
Russia tries to revive interest in struggling stock market
By Melissa Part. 2013 seemed to end on a grim note for Russia’s economy with consumer confidence hitting a new low. {{{?}}} The country’s economy has had a bumpy start to 2014 too. The recent release of high-profile political prisoners does not seem to have rallied investor interest in Russia’s stock market. Russia recently released… Continue Reading
Sberbank: consumer confidence in Russia plummets
By Andrei Skvarsky. A survey by Sberbank, Russia’s biggest lender, suggests that consumer confidence in Russia has plummeted towards the year-end after being stable from March to September. {{{?}}} The proportion of price-sensitive customers has grown, savings have dwindled, unemployment has edged up, and companies are making fewer hires, according to December’s issue of Sberbank… Continue Reading
Deutsche Boerse poll: Russian companies' confidence at “record low”
By Andrei Skvarsky. A Deutsche Boerse survey suggests that business confidence among major Russian companies hit “a record low” this month as did production and orders, marking “a miserable end to what has been a terrible year for the Russian economy”. {{{?}}} Global business data provider MNI Indicators, a Deutsche Boerse subsidiary, said its MNI… Continue Reading
FxPro: US dollar, euro, sterling to get stronger, yen to weaken
By Andrei Skvarsky. FxPro, a global forex broker, predicts that the world forex market will be characterised by greater volatility and shorter trends in 2014, with the US dollar, euro and sterling getting somewhat stronger and the yen further weakening. {{{?}}} The dollar will show “conditional” strength, “which means that we are not heading for… Continue Reading
Morgan Stanley: weak investment main cause of Russian slowdown
By Andrei Skvarsky. Morgan Stanley believes poor investment is the main cause of Russia’s decelerating economic growth. {{{?}}} Weak investment has been more powerful as a growth decelerator than robust global oil prices have been as an accelerator, the bulge bracket bank’s chief economist for Russia, Jacob Nell, argued at a briefing in Moscow last… Continue Reading
Lombard Odier banker: Russia’s slowdown has nothing to do with “middle income trap”
By Andrei Skvarsky. Swiss bank Lombard Odier’s investment chief has brushed aside a common theory that blames Russia’s current economic slowdown on a “middle income trap”, a situation where a rapidly developing economy practically stalls when incomes reach a certain level. {{{?}}} The source of the problem are balance of payments (BOP) dynamics, Paul Marson… Continue Reading
Sberbank says inflation growing source of worry for Russians
By Andrei Skvarsky. A survey by Sberbank suggests that inflation is a bigger concern for Russians today it was than a few months ago. {{{?}}} Declining unemployment is partially offsetting inflationary concerns, according to Sberbank CIB, the investment arm of Russia’s biggest lender. But inflation was flagged as a major macroeconomic problem by 63% of… Continue Reading
Sberbank says Russia doing better than other emerging markets
By Andrei Skvarsky. At a time when few analysts are upbeat about the current state of Russia’s economy, Sberbank has released a research piece arguing that the country has a set of major advantages over other emerging markets. {{{?}}} “Russia enjoys a current account surplus, is close to fiscal breakeven, and has a flexible currency,… Continue Reading
GUEST ARTICLE: Do IT with Poland – IT sector as powerhouse of Polish economy
By Jakub Smela, Public Relations Manager, M Promotion Agency, Warsaw. A strong Polish representation at this year’s E3 Expo in Los Angeles is a good reason to take a closer look at the dynamically growing Polish sector of new information and communication technologies. It was not without a reason, that during his last visit to… Continue Reading
EAST CAPITAL COMMENT: Turkish growth set to continue
The Turkish stock market has continued to perform well, and is already up 10.1 percent since the beginning of the year. That performance is just a continuation of a trend that has seen the market rise since the beginning of 2012. But for how long can it continue to perform? “Looking at the big picture,… Continue Reading
RenCap says middle income trap the source of Russia’s woes
By Andrei Skvarsky. Russia’s Renaissance Capital argues that the likeliest explanation of Russia’s current economic slowdown is a middle income trap, a situation where a fast-growing economy gets stuck after reaching a certain level of per capita income. “Fast-growing economies, including Russia, eventually slow down as the easy catch-up productivity gains relative to developed economies… Continue Reading
EAST CAPITAL COMMENT: "China: Double-digit growth figures a thing of the past"
By Kristina Sandklef, Macro Economist Asia. The newspaper headlines about China’s slowing economy may spell doom and gloom, but we have faith in the strength of the Chinese economy and believe it has great long-term growth potential – despite the days of double-digit growth probably being a thing of the past. {{{*}}} First quarter figures showed that GDP… Continue Reading
Sberbank: state of Russian economy “not too alarming”
By Andrei Skvarsky. Russia’s biggest lender Sberbank argues that, although the country’s economy appears to be grinding to a halt, the picture is “not too alarming” and growth of 3% or more is still possible this year. The Economics Ministry late last month revised its GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 2.4% from 3.6%. This… Continue Reading
EAST CAPITAL COMMENT: Why Russia is not performing
By Peter Elam Håkansson, Chairman and Head of Public Equity investment team The Russian market has certainly not been generous to investors during the first four months of 2013. We did however see a strong rebound in the last week of April but the Moscow stock exchange is still at a minus so far this year. This… Continue Reading