Category Archives: Views

Goldman Sachs survey: insurers worldwide more upbeat about investment

By Andrei Skvarsky. A survey by Goldman Sachs suggests that insurers worldwide are growing more optimistic about investment opportunities despite the uncertain and challenging 2012 with its low interest rates, and that many are willing to take on more portfolio risk. More than 40% of chief investment officers (CIOs) of insurance companies intend to increase… Continue Reading

Cyprus bailout defended by high-profile French economist Wyplosz

By Andrei Skvarsky. Prominent French economist Charles Wyplosz, at an event hosted by Russia’s biggest lender Sberbank, defended the controversial EU/IMF bailout plan for Cyprus. It’s banks that are to blame for the crisis, and so it’s fair that those who keep money in them should share the burden of it, Professor Wyplosz  told The Russia Forum, a… Continue Reading

GOLDMAN SACHS COMMENT: A Few Days in Africa

By Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management. I spent three days in Africa this week, or to be precise, Cape Town and briefly {{{*}}} Johannesburg in South Africa, as well as Lagos and Abuja in Nigeria. I attach the charts from my presentation about Africa’s potential, its challenges, and its current and future position… Continue Reading

Sberbank says consumer confidence in Russia dwindling

By Andrei Skvarsky. Sberbank CIB, the investment arm of Russia’s biggest lender Sberbank, says consumer confidence in Russia has slipped down since January. According to the second Sberbank CIB Ivanov Consumer Confidence Tracker bi-monthly survey, the base index of consumer confidence remains negative, dropping further down to -8% in March from -4% in January. “There… Continue Reading

Swiss bank Lombard Odier: Russian investors to keep clear of Cyprus

By Andrei Skvarsky. Lombard Odier, a Swiss asset management firm, praises the European Union/International Monetary Fund bailout scheme for Cyprus for making bank bondholders “share the pain” of the crisis but warns it will deprive Cypriot banks of a major source of funding and discourage Russians from investing in the country. {{{*}}} “Unprecedented and welcome is the… Continue Reading

GOLDMAN SACHS COMMENT: Is There Method in the Madness?

By Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management (this week’s ‘Viewpoints’). My last week was especially exhausting as there was so much going on and I had to organise so many things. And I wasn’t even travelling! Just trying to keep up with the huge array of things going on everywhere was tough enough, never… Continue Reading

J. P. Morgan: futures markets can help end global food shortages

By Andrei Skvarsky. J.P. Morgan, the US-based bulge bracket investment bank, argues that price benchmarks set in futures markets can help to get rid of distribution and other imbalances that leave 868m people across the world undernourished. {{{*}}} Today’s global food supply exceeds minimum dietary energy requirements by 50%, and the fact that so many people… Continue Reading

GOLDMAN SACHS COMMENT: Cyprus never let a crisis go to waste

From the weekly “Viewpoints” of Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset  Management. So how can it be that a $22bn economy can be the dominant global topic for conversation for a full week? {{{*}}} I am fond of saying that China (at least in 2011) was creating the equivalent of another Greece every 121⁄2 weeks.… Continue Reading

RenCap: Russian economy almost at a standstill, recession looming

Moscow’s Renaissance Capital investment bank argues, citing preliminary statistics from the Russian Economics Ministry, that Russia’s economy has practically stopped growing and is in danger of recession. {{{*}}} Declining prices for commodities such as aluminium, tin, crude oil and copper and output contraction in key industries such as mining, pulp and paper, and electrical equipment,… Continue Reading

Markit says world business, mainly US and Chinese firms, upbeat about 2013

By Andrei Skvarsky. According to Markit, a global financial information services company, {{{*}}} the global business community is today much more upbeat about the year ahead than it was last October, with the United States and China showing the highest optimism. “Worldwide business confidence has revived from the post-crisis low seen late last year, with… Continue Reading

EXCLUSIVE: BCS insists Moscow Exchange shares are good investment

By Andrei Skvarsky. Russia’s CreditBrokerService (BCS) has become {{{*}}} the first broker to launch the research coverage of the stock of the Moscow Exchange, issuing a “buy” recommendation but pointing out that equity trading volumes in Russia for the fourth quarter of 2012 showed a year-on-year drop of 70%. BCS analyst Olga Naydenova suggests a… Continue Reading

East Capital upbeat about Russia’s domestically-, consumer-focused sectors

East Capital, an emerging markets-focused asset manager headquartered in Stockholm, argues {{{*}}} that domestically-oriented and consumer-related sectors offer the best investment opportunities in Russia. According to East Capital’s chief investment officer, Peter Elam Håkansson, today’s Russia is a country with a “strong economy”, one of the world’s strongest balance sheets, domestically-focused sectors experiencing double-digit growth, and a… Continue Reading

SBERBANK COMMENT: Economic update – sluggish performance

By analysts, Sberbank Investment Research. Growth slowed at end 2012 not just in Russia but also in neighboring Kazakhstan, Belarus and Ukraine. In contrast to Russia, where slowing economic growth has been accompanied by softening consumption growth, the Kazakh, Belarusian and Ukrainian consumer markets remain overheated. {{{*}}} We see serious risk of economic contraction in… Continue Reading

EAST CAPITAL COMMENT: Chinese equities going from strength to strength

By Gustav Rhenman, Portfolio Manager, East Capital. The outlook for Chinese equities remains upbeat after they rallied  for the fifth month in a row. Among emerging markets, China stands out thanks to accelerating economic growth, rebounding industrial profits and fresh evidence that the country’s real estate market is not a bubble. {{{*}}} Since September 2012,… Continue Reading

Ukraine’s stock market down 35% in 2012 – East Capital

Ukraine’s stock market was the world’s second worst performer after that of Cyprus last year, slumping by 35%, but can get a boost from a potential new loan from the International Monetary Fund, according to Stockholm-based asset manager East Capital. {{{*}}} Ukraine’s economy, where the main stock market players are mining, energy, engineering and financial… Continue Reading

Sberbank says Russia’s economic growth driven by consumer sectors

{{{?}}} By Andrei Skvarsky. Sberbank has released an extensive body of research arguing that Russia’s economic growth is driven by consumer-related sectors and not by oil and gas, and that those sectors offer vast opportunities to investors. While extractive industries account for two-thirds of Russia’s stock market, and oil and gas dominate the country’s exports,… Continue Reading

SBERBANK the world’s 13th most valuable brand – Brand Finance

By Andrei Skvarsky. {{{?}}} Sberbank’s brand value has earned Russia’s biggest lender 13th place in this year’s Top 500 Banking Brands ranking compiled by Brand Finance, a London-based brand valuation consultancy. The 500-name league table values Sberbank’s brand at $14.16bn compared with the valuation of $10.77bn on the 2012 list, where the Moscow-based firm was… Continue Reading

WEAFER COMMENT: Fund Flows Monitor – EM surge continues, Russia lags

{{{?:0}}} By Chris Weafer, Chief Strategist, Ovanes Oganisyan, Strategist, and Iskander Abdullaev, Quant Analyst, Sberbank Investment Research Investors added another $5.8 bln to EM retail funds in the week ended Wednesday to bring the total invested YTD to $16.6 bln. Russia funds reported a net outflow of $64 mln for the past week, which brings… Continue Reading

SBERBANK COMMENT: Muddling through with modernization

By Evgeny Gavrilenkov, Chief Economist, Managing Director, Sberbank CIB. Economic growth slows. GDP rose 2.9% y_o_y in 3Q12. Formally, GDP growth slowed from 4.5% over 1H12, but this was due mainly to a 5.6% drop in agricultural output in 3Q12, versus an increase of 29.7% in 3Q11. Although growth decelerated in other sectors, such as… Continue Reading

Ukraine: First snowfall already turning to slush

By Conal Campbell of www.Growth-Communications.com. The week started with twin signs of optimism with the government of Mykola Azarov resigning (with the hope being that he may be replaced as PM by National Bank governor and relative liberal Sergiy Arbuzov) and announcement of an official IMF visit aiming to restart cooperation to help Ukraine meet its… Continue Reading

GOLDMAN SACHS COMMENT: Our weird but beautiful world

By Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management. My week kicked off with a tough Monday start following the Rolling Stones concert Sunday night, but what a boost it gave me. Keith, Mick and the boys rocked on for two and a half hours.  It really is quite an inspiration that such serious and serial… Continue Reading

Ukraine: Downgraded growth, downgraded ambitions

By Conal Campbell of www.Growth-Communications.com. Ukraine’s government has approved its macroeconomic forecast for 2013, projecting GDP growth of 3.4% (vs. 0% expected this year) in line with the latest IMF forecast but exceeding Kiev based Dragon Capital’s projection of 2.5%. With Ukraine’s GDP growth expected to under-perform most regional peers on the back of a deteriorating investment… Continue Reading

RenCap: Africa a great place to invest

By Andrei Skvarsky. A Renaissance Capital team of analysts have brought out a book making a passionate case for investment in Africa, crediting the continent’s economy with developing by leaps and bounds. “The economies of most African nations have transformed beyond recognition, and are set to surpass the growth seen in Asia and India over… Continue Reading