(Reuters) – George Soros is ready to invest $1 billion in Ukraine if Western countries help private investment there, and sees a 1 in 3 chance Greece will leave the euro, the billionaire financier told Austrian newspaper Der Standard. Soros has previously urged the West to step up aid to Ukraine, outlining steps toward a $50… Continue Reading
Category Archives: Views
MNI: Business sentiment in Russia up in March but recession may be there already
By Andrei Skvarsky. Regular surveys by Deutsche Boerse-owned research company MNI Indicators suggest that business sentiment in Russia bounced back in March after a protracted decline but that overall the Russian economy remains on a downward course, with the firm’s chief economist arguing it “may already be in recession”. Continue Reading
Assets Surge For Top Emerging Managers
Emerging managers have their work cut out for them when it comes to attracting assets, but recent data shows the majority of the top new funds grew AUM last year. 74% of hedge funds on Hedgetracker’s Top Emerging Hedge Fund Managers list saw equity assets increase during the fourth quarter of 2014, while the group… Continue Reading
Survey: Hedge Fund Industry “Blind Spots” Persist
The hedge fund industry’s rapid growth and an increasingly complex regulatory environment have fueled differing views on transparency and independent controls among hedge fund managers and institutional investors, according to a new survey by Northern Trust. An overwhelming majority of managers (90%) said that all or nearly all of their investors are satisfied with the… Continue Reading
Asia Frontier Capital Newsletter – Country Snapshot: Mongolia
Although it is the least densely populated country in the world, with less than 3 million people living in a land area of 1.5 million km2, Mongolia has the potential to see the greatest growth of any country within the AFC Asia Frontier Universe. Mongolia’s economy is traditionally based on herding and agriculture, but is… Continue Reading
HFR: Hedge Funds Sour On Emerging Markets
Hedge fund capital invested in emerging markets declined to conclude 2014, falling from the record level established in 3Q14 on a combination of performance losses and investor outflows concentrated in funds with exposure to Russia. The HFRI EM: Russia/Eastern Europe Index declined 18.6% in 4Q14, bringing the 2014 full year loss to 26.5%, making 2014… Continue Reading
Omni Macro Fund Bullish On India, Watching China
Omni Macro Fund was formed in 2007 by Stephen Rosen, previously a prop trader at JP Morgan. The $600 million strategy was up 5.7% in 2014 and is over three percent ahead so far in 2015. Rosen is supported by Head of Strategy Chris Morrison, also a former prop trader at JP Morgan. In addition… Continue Reading
Lombard Odier: Greek crisis no obstacle to euro zone recovery
By Andrei Skvarsky. Swiss bank Lombard Odier argues that the Greek crisis is not systemic to the euro zone and does not jeopardise its recovery, not at this point at least. Continue Reading
Deutsche Boerse’s MNI Indicators: Russian companies face credit crunch
By Andrei Skvarsky. According to Deutsche Boerse-owned intelligence firm MNI Indicators, Russia’s economic downturn and foreign policy problems are pushing Russian companies closer and closer to a credit crunch. Continue Reading
EXCLUSIVE: S&P’s junk grade for Russia no bombshell – Swiss banker
By Andrei Skvarsky. A Moscow-based senior manager at Swiss bank Lombard Odier has argued that ratings agency S&P’s lowering of the sovereign credit rating Continue Reading
Asia Frontier Capital Newsletter – Country Snapshot: Bangladesh
With over 160 million people, a young and cheap labor force and a strategic location between India and China – two of largest engines of global economic growth over the past decade – Bangladesh maintains strong prospects for extended economic growth. Continue Reading
Deutsche Boerse group: Consumer sentiment in Russia lowest for nearly 2 years
By Andrei Skvarsky. Monthly polls of ordinary Russians by MNI Indicators, an intelligence unit of the Deutsche Boerse group, suggest that consumer confidence in Russia has been fizzling out steadily for months and in January hit the lowest mark since the surveys were launched in March 2013. Continue Reading
Juniper Research: Use of cryptocurrencies plummeting over theft, murky deals
By Andrei Skvarsky. Juniper Research, a UK-based communications research and consultancy company, forecasts that global cryptocurrency transactions will plummet in value this year to just over $30bn from more than $71bn in 2014. Continue Reading
Sberbank: ‘New economic model’ developed in Russia, growth likely to resume in 2016
By Andrei Skvarsky. Sberbank, Russia’s biggest lender, this week came up with an unusually upbeat economic forecast, arguing that the Russian economy has adjusted to the low oil price and is likely to resume growth in 2016. Continue Reading
Asia Frontier Capital (AFC) Newsletter – 2014 Annual Review
2014 was a strong year for the AFC Asia Frontier Fund (AAFF) as a young team came together to establish a platform for future growth. This was not only reflected in the fund’s performance, but also in our focus on making on-the-ground visits to countries, meeting more companies, talking to people in our markets, and… Continue Reading
Newsletter from Canrim Resources, a Singaporean company focused on mineral resources development in Mongolia
Reflecting on 2014, Mongolia has come far, yet still has further to go. Early in the year many structural issues loomed large. This included the moratorium on the issuance of exploration licenses, development of large scale power projects and the railroad gauge debate, all of which were recently successfully resolved. In light of these productive developments, and a… Continue Reading
EXCLUSIVE: Economists say practically no chance of Greece leaving euro
By Andrei Skvarsky. The idea of a Greek exit from the eurozone is back in the foreground, largely because of upcoming elections in Greece, but three high-powered economists have argued in interviews with EmergingMarkets.me that there is practically zero chance of the country breaking away. Continue Reading
Deutsche Boerse group poll suggests production in Russia at “lowest level on record”
By Andrei Skvarsky. A monthly survey by Deutsche Boerse group’s intelligence firm MNI Indicators suggests that Russian companies were a wee bit more optimistic in December than the month before but that production was at “the lowest level on record”, which appeared “to be finally spilling over to the jobs market”. Continue Reading
EXCLUSIVE: Central bank too slow to react to ruble’s slide – Deutsche Boerse group analyst
Philip Uglow, chief economist at Deutsche Boerse-owned research company MNI Indicators, has said that last week’s key rate hike to 17% from 10.5% by the Russian central bank showed “how slow” the regulator had been to react to the slide of the ruble. Continue Reading
Dramatic rate hike to take Russian economy closer to “collapse” – economists
By Andrei Skvarsky. The Russian central bank’s raise of the key rate to 17% from 10.5% on December 16 comes as early and stark proof of a forecast last week by Philip Uglow, chief economist at Deutsche Boerse research firm MNI Indicators, who said the regulator would further tighten its monetary policy but argued this… Continue Reading
ASIA FRONTIER CAPITAL – Country Snapshot – Iraq
Despite being plagued by armed conflict for most of the last decade, Iraq’s economy is rebounding and showing promising signs for surging growth in the future. Iraq is an enormously wealthy country, devastated by over 30 years of terrible conflicts and crippling sanctions, and almost torn apart by civil strife. Continue Reading
MNI Indicators: Things going "from bad to worse" for Russian consumers
By Andrei Skvarsky. In reporting the findings of a recent monthly poll, Deutsche Boerse’s research unit MNI Indicators makes what appears to be its bleakest assessment of the status of the average Russian consumer in about a year and half. Continue Reading
Russian govt releases its first recession forecast for 2015
By Andrei Skvarsky. Russia’s Economic Development Ministry for the first time released a recession forecast for 2015 on December 2, arguing that gross domestic product was likely to shrink by 0.8%. Continue Reading
Deutsche Boerse group analysts: sliding ruble keeps bedevilling Russian business
By Andrei Skvarsky. The latest of monthly surveys by Deutsche Boerse-owned intelligence firm MNI suggests that the overall sentiment in Russia’s business community has remained stable and predominantly negative since October but continued to be slowly eroded by the weakening ruble and Western sanctions. Continue Reading
Moody’s predicts stability for EMEA’s PFI/PPP sector
By Andrei Skvarsky. Moody’s predicts stability over the next 12 to 18 months for the Europe-Middle East-Africa (EMEA) region’s practice of project co-financing by private companies and government agencies. Continue Reading
East Capital’s chief economist explains ruble’s slide
The chief economist of East Capital, a Stockholm-based emerging and frontier market asset manager, argues there are five main reasons for the sharp depreciation of the Russian ruble over the last several months. Continue Reading
ASIA FRONTIER CAPITAL – Country Snapshot – Myanmar
Following recent democratization measures, including the release of hundreds of political prisoners, cease-fire agreements with ethnic rebels, and the incorporation of long-time human rights champion Aung San Suu Kyi into the political process, it is apparent that Myanmar is determined to become fully integrated into the international community. Continue Reading
Deutsche Boerse think tank: Russians’ five-year macroeconomic outlook less than radiant
By Andrei Skvarsky. A poll by a Deutsche Boerse-owned think tank suggests the average Russian was more pessimistic in October than in September about what overall business conditions would be like in Russia five years from now. Continue Reading
EXCLUSIVE: Deutsche Boerse group economist optimistic about free-floating ruble’s long-term effects but says move unlikely to cure current Russian ailments
By Andrei Skvarsky. A senior economist in the Deutsche Boerse group argues that the Russian central bank’s decision to abandon the ruble’s trading corridor as from next year, letting the currency float freely, is a positive move long-term but unlikely to help the ailing Russian economy a great deal short-term. Continue Reading