By Andrei Skvarsky. The latest of monthly surveys by a Deutsche Boerse-owned think tank suggests the average Russian is increasingly worse off, is worried about their current and future finances and has gloomy outlooks for Russia’slabour market and economy in general as recession and possible further western sanctions loom large. Continue Reading
Category Archives: Views
Deutsche Boerse analysts: For Russian companies, it's not really business as usual
By Andrei Skvarsky. A survey by Deutsche Boerse-owned data provider MNI suggests that the majority of Russian companies are increasingly unhappy with the state of their business because of western sanctions against Russia, and that the overall sentiment became predominantly pessimistic in May. Continue Reading
Machlin-Oracle article: India economy may show faster growth
By Andrei Skvarsky. An article released by London-based investment advisory firm Machlin-Oracle argues that India now has a chance of speeding up its economic growth after a current slowdown. {{{?}}} This presumed opportunity has been created by the victory of right-wing Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party in May 12 elections and the designation of its… Continue Reading
Russia-Ukraine crisis threatens recovery in the EBRD region
The crisis in Russia and Ukraine is having a severe impact on the economies of the two countries and is threatening to slow down the recovery in the wider EBRD region – or even bring it to a complete halt. {{{?}}} The EBRD’s latest economic report predicts growth in the transition region of just 1.4 per cent in 2014,… Continue Reading
Deutsche Börse analysts: Russians increasingly worse off because of Ukraine
By Andrei Skvarsky. A Deutsche Börse-owned research company says consumer sentiment in Russia has been going down steadily since the start of the year because of the Ukraine crisis, and that a survey taken last month showed a further decline. {{{?}}} Household finances, short-term business conditions and the spending climate in Russia are all affected… Continue Reading
GUEST COMMENT: On the road to Donetsk?
By Tyler Hawkins Sunshine, PhD World War III is certainly not looming and any fallout from recent events in the Ukraine will only have a short-lived effect on capital markets in Russia, let alone the rest of the world. {{{?}}} Russian equity indices and credit default swaps are trading at the lower end of the… Continue Reading
MNI says consumer sentiment in Russia down, Sberbank argues it’s edging up
By Andrei Skvarsky. A monthly survey by a Deutsche Börse think tank suggests that consumer sentiment in Russia has dropped by more than 10% since the start of 2014 and plummeted to its lowest level since March 2013 because of global fallout from Russia’s annexation of Crimea. {{{?}}} The research firm, MNI Indicators, said its… Continue Reading
EXCLUSIVE: Deutsche Börse analyst says sanctions push Russia towards recession
By Andrei Skvarsky. A Deutsche Börse analyst argues that Russia will plunge into recession if the West follows up its recent penalties against the country in retaliation for its annexation of Crimea with widespread trade and financial sanctions. {{{?}}} “Given that the economy grew by just 1.3% in 2013 and growth has pretty much ground… Continue Reading
Deutsche Börse-owned firm: Crimea fallout makes Russian businesses pessimistic
By Andrei Skvarsky. A survey by a Deutsche Börse-owned research firm suggests the international fallout from Russia’s annexation of Crimea has brought a lot of pessimism to the Russian business community. {{{?}}} With the looming threat of tough anti-Russian sanctions, business confidence among Russian companies has dropped in March to its lowest level in three… Continue Reading
Deutsche Börse analysts: consumer sentiment in Russia plunges
By Andrei Skvarsky. A Deutsche Börse-owned research company has said a survey it took in February before the crisis in Ukraine reached its disastrous proportions showed consumer sentiment in Russia to have slumped to its lowest level since March 2013. {{{?}}} Previous surveys by MNI Indicators showed consumer optimism to have risen in December and… Continue Reading
Markit: emerging markets still “downbeat” about future
By Andrei Skvarsky. Global financial information provider Markit says a survey it made last month suggests emerging markets remain “downbeat” about the future. {{{?}}} “Improving confidence and post-crisis high capex and hiring intentions in the developed world contrast markedly with ongoing downbeat expectations for the year ahead across the emerging markets,” the London-headquartered company said… Continue Reading
Lombard Odier banker: Sberbank, VTB to survive Western sanctions
By Andrei Skvarsky. A top executive at Lombard Odier, one of Europe’s biggest private banking firms, has argued that Sberbank, VTB and other Russian state-controlled banks would most likely be targets of potential Western sanctions against Russia because of its invasion of Crimea but that the lenders would stay afloat without major damage. {{{?}}} Domestic… Continue Reading
EXCLUSIVE: Chief economist at Deutsche Börse-owned firm argues what reforms Russia needs
In this interview with EmergingMarkets.me, Philip Uglow, chief economist at MNI Indicators, a Deutsche Börse-owned research firm, explains what he believes Russia needs to do to achieve sustainable growth. {{{?}}} You have said Russia needs structural changes to its growth model. Could you outline what specifically such changes should be? Russia’s weak business climate remains… Continue Reading
Deutsche Börse group: consumer confidence in Russia rises
By Andrei Skvarsky. A Deutsche Börse-owned think tank says consumer confidence in Russia went up in January after slumping late last year but expresses suspicion that the upturn will be short-lived. {{{?}}} But the current Winter Olympics in Sochi were the likeliest reason for consumer optimism rising for the second consecutive month in January to the highest level… Continue Reading
EAST CAPITAL COMMENT: Confessions of an emerging market optimist
By Marcus Svedberg, Chief Economist, East Capital.* Arguably it is not very easy to be an emerging market (EM) optimist these days. It seems like almost everything and everyone is against the group of markets that were once the darlings of investors. Tapering is the most obvious cause for pessimism and is the most important… Continue Reading
EAST CAPITAL COMMENT: Was January’s emerging markets scare justified?
By Peter Elam Hakansson, Chairman and Head of Public Equity investment team, East Capital.* The first month of the year turned out to be a very difficult one for emerging markets, with a fear of tapering by the US Federal reserve and a slowdown of the Chinese economy leading to a sharp sell-off of emerging… Continue Reading
TURKEY: When it rains, it pours – EAST CAPITAL COMMENT
By Emre Akcakmak, Portfolio Manager, East Capital.* It was not so long ago that Turkey was the darling of international investors. Political stability, a young population, a fast-growing economy, declining inflation and a series of rating upgrades encouraged investors to buy Turkish equities and pushed Borsa Istanbul to all-time highs by May 2013 – with… Continue Reading
Lombard Odier hails China opting for “better quality” growth
By Andrei Skvarsky. Switzerland’s Lombard Odier, one of Europe’s largest private banking firms, says declining Chinese growth is one of its major concerns from the investment point of view but hails what it sees as China’s determination to move to“better quality” growth, namely from investment-led to consumption-based growth. {{{?}}} Among other things, the Geneva-based bank… Continue Reading
GUEST COMMENT: CIS/Ukraine macro-politics: investor scenarios
{{{?}}} By Chris Weafer, Founding Partner, Macro-Advisory, Moscow. Chris Weafer’s career includes top research positions with Sberbank, Troika Dialog, UralSib, Alfa Bank and NatWest. Mr Weafer, who has worked in Russia for more than fifteen years, is the author of a wide variety of articles about Russia, Central Asia and the trend in macro oil. He… Continue Reading
EXCLUSIVE: MNI Indicators chief economist Philip Uglow comments on Russia’s economy in interview with EmergingMarkets.me
How would you explain Russia’s current slowdown? Can it be that the global crisis has finally got to Russia – it seems that what happens in Western economies takes a while to reach Russia? {{{?}}} The global economic crisis has clearly had a negative impact on Russia – there’s no getting away from that. Russia… Continue Reading
MNI Indicators: Russian companies’ confidence jumps up
By Andrei Skvarsky. Deutsche Boerse’s data-providing subsidiary MNI Indicators says business confidence among some of Russia’s largest companies bounced back sharply in January from a “record low” in December but warns that the upturn may be temporary. {{{?}}} The MNI Russia Business Indicator rocketed to 57.9 in January from 45.5 in December, to register its… Continue Reading
VTB chief: West’s Russian policies run against globalisation trends
By Andrei Skvarsky. The president of state-controlled VTB Group, Russia’s second-largest bank, has accused the West of a “patronising”, arrogant and standoffish attitude to Russia, which he argues is not the way to behave in these times of globalisation. {{{?}}} “It sometimes seems that politicians of countries that ought to have much in common are… Continue Reading
Royal Bank of Scotland subsidiary says BRIC obsolete term
By Andrei Skvarsky. Coutts, a lender owned by Royal Bank of Scotland, argues that the 13-year-old BRIC term is obsolete. {{{?}}} The economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China are much too different in size and performance to justify seeing the four nations as a distinctive group. Moreover, there is a bunch of other emerging… Continue Reading
Russia tries to revive interest in struggling stock market
By Melissa Part. 2013 seemed to end on a grim note for Russia’s economy with consumer confidence hitting a new low. {{{?}}} The country’s economy has had a bumpy start to 2014 too. The recent release of high-profile political prisoners does not seem to have rallied investor interest in Russia’s stock market. Russia recently released… Continue Reading
Sberbank: consumer confidence in Russia plummets
By Andrei Skvarsky. A survey by Sberbank, Russia’s biggest lender, suggests that consumer confidence in Russia has plummeted towards the year-end after being stable from March to September. {{{?}}} The proportion of price-sensitive customers has grown, savings have dwindled, unemployment has edged up, and companies are making fewer hires, according to December’s issue of Sberbank… Continue Reading
Deutsche Boerse poll: Russian companies' confidence at “record low”
By Andrei Skvarsky. A Deutsche Boerse survey suggests that business confidence among major Russian companies hit “a record low” this month as did production and orders, marking “a miserable end to what has been a terrible year for the Russian economy”. {{{?}}} Global business data provider MNI Indicators, a Deutsche Boerse subsidiary, said its MNI… Continue Reading
FxPro: US dollar, euro, sterling to get stronger, yen to weaken
By Andrei Skvarsky. FxPro, a global forex broker, predicts that the world forex market will be characterised by greater volatility and shorter trends in 2014, with the US dollar, euro and sterling getting somewhat stronger and the yen further weakening. {{{?}}} The dollar will show “conditional” strength, “which means that we are not heading for… Continue Reading
Morgan Stanley: weak investment main cause of Russian slowdown
By Andrei Skvarsky. Morgan Stanley believes poor investment is the main cause of Russia’s decelerating economic growth. {{{?}}} Weak investment has been more powerful as a growth decelerator than robust global oil prices have been as an accelerator, the bulge bracket bank’s chief economist for Russia, Jacob Nell, argued at a briefing in Moscow last… Continue Reading
Lombard Odier banker: Russia’s slowdown has nothing to do with “middle income trap”
By Andrei Skvarsky. Swiss bank Lombard Odier’s investment chief has brushed aside a common theory that blames Russia’s current economic slowdown on a “middle income trap”, a situation where a rapidly developing economy practically stalls when incomes reach a certain level. {{{?}}} The source of the problem are balance of payments (BOP) dynamics, Paul Marson… Continue Reading