By Chris Weafer, Chief Strategist at Troika Dialog. The weekly equity funds flow report from EPFR Global showed a big jump in new investment into emerging market funds for the week ended Wednesday. A total of $3.5 bln was invested into all EM funds compared to $1.0 bln the week before. Russia dedicated funds reported… Continue Reading
Category Archives: Views
COMMENT: Russia and the WTO
By Daniel Salter, Head of EMEA Equity Strategy at UniCredit Securities. Russia is by far the largest global economy outside the WTO. Entry negotiations have been going on for eighteen years, since Russia applied to join the WTO’s predecessor, GATT, in 1993. However, after numerous false starts, progress appears to have accelerated recently – we… Continue Reading
Micex-RTS merger wins 'deal of the year' prize
By Andrei Skvarsky. Micex and RTS, Russia’s two key stock exchanges, have won a prize from a Russian business magazine for their current merger, a $1bn deal to be closed on December 19. The Kompaniya weekly declared the two exchanges winners of the company of the year prize in the deal of the year category, according to statements from… Continue Reading
KRAUS COMMENT: The Twilight of the West
By Eric Kraus, author of the Truth and Beauty (and Russian Finance). The good news is that we have a ringside seat for the decline of the West… the bad news – we are inside the ring! The miserable thing about being a seer is that when you get it right – no one remembers… Continue Reading
UKRAINE COMMENT: Muted response by markets to Tymoshenko sentence
Arthur McCallum Arthur McCallum, Head of Strategy at Eavex Capital. The October 11 sentencing of Yulia Tymoshenko to seven years in jail and a fine of UAH 1.5bn (USD 188mn) for abuse of power has caused quite a stir internationally. We maintain our view that the escalation of the Tymoshenko situation is a reflection of… Continue Reading
KRAUS COMMENT: The Eternal Russia – The Eternal Return
By Eric Kraus, author of Truth and Beauty (and Russian Finance). The major story is, of course, the return of Vladimir Putin to the Russian presidency – an outcome which we always thought likely given that Medvedev seemed a deeply counterintuitive choice for the Russian presidency. Totally lacking in charisma and with no experience of… Continue Reading
Who is Russia's finance minister Anton Siluanov ?
By Andrei Skvarksy. Anton Siluanov was a low-profile career civil servant before being named last week as Russian interim finance minister to replace Alexei Kudrin, to whom he had been a deputy for several years. Although Siluanov is not expected to continue beyond the lifetime of this government, there is an expectation as he tries… Continue Reading
Kudrin depature to rupture Russian investment case
By Ivan Anderzhanov and Eugene Kasevin. Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin‘s statement that he is unwilling to work in a future Russian government after the presidential elections will dent investor confidence in the country’s fiscal discipline. Kudrin yesterday ruled himself out of working in the next government, if President Dmitry Medvedev becomes premier, following Vladimir… Continue Reading
WEAFER COMMENT: Moscow, twinned with Cushing
By Chris Weafer, Chief Strategist at Troika Dialog. On the face of it, there is little in common between the Russian capital, population 11.5 mln, and Cushing, Oklahoma, population 8,400. But they do have one important factor in common; Cushing is where the price of WTI is fixed, and over the past six months, the… Continue Reading
The Brits are fast fading in Russia as PM Cameron arrives
By Andrei Skvarsky. British banks HSBC and Barclays, along with oil major BP, are fading from Russia just as UK Prime Minister David Cameron arrives in Moscow on Monday to try to reverse a nadir in British-Russian relations. HSBC, Europe’s largest bank, has shut its modest Russian retail network after committing $200m for building it… Continue Reading
GOLDMAN COMMENT: Swissy never lies
By Jim O’Neil, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management. In the context of the ongoing challenges in the US, the Euro Area and elsewhere, this week I have chosen to focus on the Swiss Franc currency. Throughout the market mayhem of August, and its subsequent carry over into the start of September, the Swiss Franc… Continue Reading
WEAFER COMMENT: New month – new hope
By Chris Weafer, Chief Strategist at Troika Dialog. Equity markets look set to extend recent gains after another positive session in the US and broadly based gains across Asia this morning. However, after such a strong run into the end of August, investors will likely adopt a more cautious approach until the important economic indicators,… Continue Reading
EBRD attracts SRI lender to Russian market for first time
By Marcus Williams. An EBRD loan for Russia’s Transcapitalbank marks the first time an institution with a specific mandate to act as a socially responsible lender is participating as a co-financier to raise funds for a Russian borrower. To date, the EBRD’s partners in such transactions have traditionally been commercial banks, according to a statement from the… Continue Reading
EXCLUSIVE: Wermuth fund manager Winsell Davies quits for Metropol role
John Winsell Davies By Ivan Anderzhnov. John Winsell Davies has quit Wermuth Asset Management and has started offering his ”consulting services” to Metropol. Winsell Davies will work closely with Hawk Sunshine, who switched from a senior investment banking role at Metropol last year to managing director of fund management. Winsell Davies, a Russia veteran with… Continue Reading
GOLDMAN COMMENT: Looking through the fog
By Jim O’Neil, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management. In the past week, we have experienced remarkable turmoil in financial markets, which have brought back memories for many people of the darkest days of late 2008. Are direct parallels to 2008 valid ? Many other questions also come to mind. Are current market valuation levels… Continue Reading
COMMENT: Cruel, cruel summer: Screening Emerging Europe
By Daniel Salter, Chief Strategist at UniCredit Securities. If this is a “normal” mid-cycle market correction, markets could soon start to find a bottom, with the S&P 18% off since its cycle high (in line with the median of fourteen 10%+ downturns for the S&P since 1975). However, if recent events (including the heated debate… Continue Reading
Kazakhstani banking: Accelerated lending coupled with jump in NPLs
By Rustam Botashev, Deputy Head of Research at UniCredit Securities. Kazakhstan’s bank supervisory committee has published 6M11 banking statistics, showing accelerating loan growth on the backdrop of deteriorating asset quality. We reiterate our Buy recommendations for Halyk Bank (12M TP of USD 14.3) and Kazkommertsbank (USD 9.6). Lending in Kazakhstan accelerated in June, with 1.3%… Continue Reading
Evrofinance Capital asks state to halt Micex-RTS merger
By Andrei Skvarsky. Evrofinance Capital, a Micex minority shareholder, has asked for an official order to reverse the merger of Russia’s biggest stock exchange with the RTS bourse. The merger will be damaging to Micex, its shareholders, the Russian financial markets and the country as a whole if based on the current scenario,… Continue Reading
EXCLUSIVE: Interview with Yevgeny Kogan of Moscow Partners
By Andrei Skvarsky. Yevgeny Kogan, president of the Moscow Partners investment boutique and a former senior partner at Russian wealth management firm Third Rome, talks to EmergingMarkets.me about his company’s history, current business and plans. Yevgeny, what is your role in the company, which you and Igor Moryakov have founded as partners? It may be… Continue Reading
WEAFER COMMENT: A Bellerophonic Message
By Chris Weafer, Chief Strategist at ING in Moscow. There continues to be only one key event in global markets and that is the US debt deal. As this note goes out, there is optimism that a deal will be reached either this evening or tomorrow. That should allow for a modest relief rally in… Continue Reading
Equity fund flows: Investors remain optimistic and sidelined
By Chris Weafer, Chief Strategist at ING in Moscow. The total volume of money invested into emerging market (EM) funds last week was relatively low, even for midsummer, as investors prudently remained on the sidelines while waiting for a resolution of the US debt talks. But, although low, the net flow remained positive as a… Continue Reading
EXCLUSIVE: Metropol hires Howard and Brenton for London expansion
By Andrei Skvarsky. Russian broker Metropol has hired former Nomura executive Mark Howard as head of its London-based equity sales team and ex-Renaissance Capital and UralSib banker Tim Brenton as a member of the team. Howard, who has more than 15 years of emerging markets experience, was selling Chinese equities for North Square Blue Oak,… Continue Reading
Russia’s AMT Bank struck off
By Andrei Skvarsky. Moscow’s AMT Bank, until 2009 co-owned by major Kazakh lender BTA, has had its licence annulled by Russia’s Central Bank with effect from today. AMT has been failing to comply with “federal laws regulating banking activities” and presenting false accounts, the Central Bank said in a statement. UniCredit analyst Rustam Botashev said… Continue Reading
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMENT: Who would you want in EMU?
By Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Western sovereign debt issues rolled on again last week, with fierce competition between the US and the Euro Area for attention. As President Obama and Congress struggle to reach a budget compromise ahead of the debt ceiling deadline, two ratingagencies made it clear that failure to make… Continue Reading
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMENT: A messy start to July
By Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Just when it seemed things were shifting back to the optimists’ camp, Friday’s news about the state of the world threw another spanner in the works. In addition to a very disappointing US nonfarm payrolls report, Italy came into the spotlight in the European crisis. Subsequently, the earliest of the June… Continue Reading
Putin and Connie the labrador to be Russia’s next tandem, say EM.me readers
By Andrei Skvarsky. The majority of respondents in a recent EmergingMarkets.me online poll expected Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to be Russia’s next president and a vast proportion thought he would have just a figurehead prime minister if he moved back into the Kremlin. The view that “Putin and Connie the labrador” (the premier’s pet dog)… Continue Reading
GUEST COMMENT: Khodorkovsky Trial Exposes Reform Progress
By James Beadle from Market-Melange.com Since 2003 former Yukos executives Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev have been incarcerated in Russia on charges of tax evasion. At present, as their eight year stint enters its final stages, the two are on trial once more, charged with stealing millions of tonnes of oil (reputedly the same oil… Continue Reading
Fund Flows: Sentiment is Finely (Dangerously) Balanced
By Chris Weafer, Chief Strategist at UralSib Capital Waiting for clarity. Fund investors appear to have taken a sanguine view of global market volatility over the past week. They have remained largely on the sidelines while waiting for a clearer picture to emerge. According to the data supplied by EPFR Global, in the week ended… Continue Reading
Troika Dialog: the best investment bank in Russia ?
By Ivan Anderzhanov Troika Dialog has been awarded the gong of best investment bank in Russia in the recent Global Finance awards. In a statement, Troika said it currently leads Russian debt capital market league tables in terms of volume, number of issues and market share. Last we checked, VTB Capital may have had some… Continue Reading