Oleg Vyugin is chairman of Russia’s MDM Bank and an adviser to Morgan Stanley. Formerly he held various senior positions in Russian financial authorities such as deputy finance minister, first deputy chairman of the central bank, and head of the now-abolished Federal Financial Markets Service. He discusses the state of the Russian economy and effects… Continue Reading
Asia Frontier Capital Newsletter – November 2015
“Knowledge is Power” – Francis Bacon AFC Asia Frontier Fund (AAFF) USD A-shares declined -3.4% in November 2015. This month the fund outperformed the MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Index (-7.2%) and the MSCI Frontier Markets Index (-4.6%) but underperformed the MSCI World Index (-0.7%). The year to date performance of the AFC Asia Frontier Fund… Continue Reading
Moscow Exchange reports major y-o-y trading volume increases
By Andrei Skvarsky. Trading volumes on Moscow Exchange grew significantly in terms of rubles between November 2014 and November 2015, with the bourse’s money market posting the lowest increase of nearly one fifth and its precious metals trade more than quadrupling, the exchange has said. Continue Reading
Kroll: Companies worldwide report increasing fraud
A survey commissioned by global risk solution provider Kroll suggests that corporate fraud has continued to increase in scale across the world in 2015 and has affected three quarters of companies worldwide this year. Continue Reading
Lamudi: More money to pour into emerging markets real estate business in 2016
By Andrei Skvarsky. Emerging markets-focused online real estate trader Lamudi forecasts greater investment activity, including foreign investment, in the real estate sectors of emerging market countries in 2016. Continue Reading
EXCLUSIVE: Sberbank CIB chief economist denies that oil pivotal to Russian economy
By Andrei Skvarsky. Evgeny Gavrilenkov, chief economist at Sberbank CIB, the investment arm of Russia’s biggest lender Sberbank, denies that Russia’s economy hinges on oil, taking issue with a common view among economists worldwide. Continue Reading
Deutsche Boerse analysts: Russia business sentiment at record low
By Andrei Skvarsky. Monthly surveys by Deutsche Boerse analysts suggest that in November Russian companies had much gloomier feelings about the general business conditions in Russia than for a long time before. Continue Reading
Lombard Odier: Russia may be past its worst but recovery would still be hard
By Andrei Skvarsky. According to analysts at Swiss bank Lombard Odier, the Russian economy is likely to be past its worst but remains beset by problems too serious to make smooth recovery possible. Continue Reading
MNI Indicators: Consumer sentiment in Russia bleakest since 2013
By Andrei Skvarsky. Monthly surveys by MNI Indicators, an intelligence subsidiary of Deutsche Boerse, suggest that consumer sentiment in Russia went down for the second consecutive month in October and overall hit its lowest mark that month for the past two and half years. Continue Reading
RenCap hires senior sales trader from BNP Paribas for Johannesburg team
By Andrei Skvarsky. Renaissance Capital, a Russian investment bank focusing on emerging and frontier markets, has made an addition to its South African team by hiring Jon Oosthuyse from BNP Paribas as director/senior sales trader. Continue Reading
Lamudi: Online real estate trade increasingly dependent on mobile devices
By Andrei Skvarsky. Lamudi, a two-year-old real estate portal focusing on emerging and frontier markets, says the number of visits to it from mobile devices has surged by an average of 32.17% since 2014. Continue Reading
EXCLUSIVE: Times rough in Russia but DIXY retailer remains a success story
Interview with DIXY CEO Ilya Yakubson. In the rugged economic landscape of today’s Russia it’s not easy for any company to even survive, least of all to do booming business. Yet DIXY, one of Russia’s oldest and biggest food retailers, is doing quite well, having grown by 26% last year. Set up in 1992, DIXY… Continue Reading
Asia Frontier Capital Newsletter – Country Snapshot: Myanmar
AFC Asia Frontier Fund (AAFF) USD A-shares gained +2.1% in October 2015. The fund this month underperformed the MSCI Frontier Asia Index (+3.2%), the MSCI World Index (+7.8%) and the MSCI Frontier Index (+3.6%) after outperforming the same indexes in September. The year to date performance of the AFC Asia Frontier Fund A-shares stands now at… Continue Reading
Russia’s Promsvyazbank sets up IT development firm
By Andrei Skvarsky. One of Russia’s biggest private banks, Promsvyazbank, has set up a company to develop software that would primarily be used by the lender itself but might also be offered for sale to other firms. Continue Reading
Big Russian companies heading for Shanghai to discuss investment in Russia
Major Russian companies such as Gazprombank, the country’s third-largest lender, and development bank VEB are getting together at a forum in Shanghai on November 6 organised by Moscow Exchange and Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) to discuss investment opportunities in Russia. Continue Reading
Russian businesses’ spirits sinking again – MNI Indicators
By Andrei Skvarsky. Russian companies’ roller coaster-like sentiment about the general business environment in their country edged down again in October after bouncing back somewhat in September and August, according to surveys by MNI Indicators, part of the Deutsche Boerse group. Continue Reading
Russian Reserve Fund may be empty by end of 2016 – finance minister
By Andrei Skvarsky. Russia’s Reserve Fund, a sovereign fund for plugging budget deficits, may go empty by the end of 2016 if the global oil price and the value of the ruble stay at their current levels, media cited Finance Minister Anton Siluanov as saying. Continue Reading
India’s interest rate cut may spur capital outflow – CEIC
By Andrei Skvarsky. September’s unexpectedly big interest rate cut by the Indian central bank obviously aims to boost economic growth but is likely to spur the current outflow of capital from the country, intelligence company CEIC Data argues. Continue Reading
RenCap: Iran’s banking has more emerging market than frontier market characteristics
Russian investment bank Renaissance Capital, citing sources including Iranian commentators and business people, says Iran’s banking looks more like an emerging market than a frontier market sector in terms of penetration of services. Continue Reading
Putin: German businesses have ‘wise’ strategy for Russia
By Andrei Skvarsky. Russian President Vladimir Putin has credited German companies with a “balanced and wise” attitude to doing business in Russia and with investing in key Russian industries. Continue Reading
MNI Indicators: Russian consumers gloomier in September than in August
By Andrei Skvarsky. Monthly polls by intelligence company MNI Indicators, part of the Deutsche Boerse group, suggest that in September Russian consumers had the greatest pessimism about the current economic situation in their country since the firm launched its surveys in March 2013. Continue Reading
MNI Indicators poll: Russian companies slightly more upbeat in September
By Andrei Skvarsky. A monthly survey by Deutsche Boerse-owned think tank MNI Indicators suggests that in September Russian companies were a little more optimistic about the current business environment in their country despite the China-led global equity and commodity rout of the previous month. Continue Reading
Dubai UAE’s best market for long-term property investment – Bayut
By Andrei Skvarsky. Dubai-based real estate portal Bayut.com says the city’s property market “continued its price correction” in August, eliminating “all fears of another boom and bust cycle” and becoming the United Arab Emirates’ “best market” for mid- to long-term real estate investment. Continue Reading
Asia Frontier Capital Newsletter – Country Snapshot: Sri Lanka
“The stock market is a device for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient” – Warren Buffet In September 2015, the AFC Asia Frontier Fund returned -1.4%, outperforming the MSCI Frontier Markets Asia Index (-7.5%), the MSCI World Index (-3.9%), and the MSCI Frontier Index (-2.6%), which all dropped significantly. The year to date… Continue Reading
Moscow Exchange boosts dividend payout floor to 55% of net profit
By Andrei Skvarsky. Moscow Exchange has announced that, from this year onwards, it will allocate a minimum of 55% of its net profit as calculated under international financial reporting standards for dividend payouts to its shareholders. Continue Reading
Middle classes a key source of emerging markets’ growth – Lamudi
By Andrei Skvarsky. The economies of emerging market countries are largely driven by their rapidly growing middle classes, whose relative and increasing affluence boosts demand and hence spurs production and job creation, says online real estate trader Lamudi. Continue Reading
GUEST COMMENT: Russian credit decoupling, geopolitics
By Luis Saenz,* Head, Equity Sales & Trading, Managing Director, BCS Financial Group, Russia. In the last few months we have seen a decoupling of Russian credit from the Ruble. We find this intriguing since currency and credit in Russia has moved in lockstep for quite a while. Not a huge surprise since the underlying… Continue Reading
Russian consumers more upbeat in August but optimism fragile – MNI Indicators
By Andrei Skvarsky. The average Russian consumer felt slightly more upbeat in August than in July, Deutsche Boerse-owned intelligence company MNI Indicators said with the reservation that the alleged uptick was “barely off the lows witnessed in March” and warning it might be short-lived. Continue Reading
Asia Frontier Capital Newsletter – Country Snapshot: Mongolia
In August 2015, the AFC Asia Frontier Fund lost -1.4%, outperforming the MSCI Frontier Asia Index (-8.1%), the MSCI World Index (-6.8%) and the MSCI Frontier Index (-5.8%), which all dropped significantly. The year to date performance of the AFC Asia Frontier Fund A-shares stands now at +0.7% versus the MSCI Frontier Asia Index which is down… Continue Reading