By Andrei Skvarsky.
The Russian rouble’s unusual volatility in the second quarter of 2021 was chiefly caused by uncertainties over the then inability of the OPEC cartel and other key oil producing nations to agree output volumes because of a dispute that was only settled by July 18, according to Russian investment firm Matrix Capital.
The reported July 18 agreement by OPEC and other principal oil producers, often referred to as OPEC+, followed a lengthy row between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, both OPEC members, that made a deal impossible.
The Russian currency was swinging by up to 6 roubles or by nearly 10 per cent versus the dollar in the second quarter.
The rouble was further weakened in that period by larger purchases of U.S. dollars by the Russian Finance Ministry and by tensions fuelled by the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine, Matrix general partner Pavel Teplukhin said during an online news briefing.
On the other hand, the rouble gained some strength from lower demand for foreign currency as vast numbers of Russians were unable to go ahead with usual annual holidays abroad because of restrictions caused by the Covid pandemic, Teplukhin said.
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