By Andrei Skvarsky.
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry for the first time released a recession forecast for 2015 on December 2, arguing that gross domestic product was likely to shrink by 0.8%.
The projection is mainly based on assumptions that the oil price will stay low, the outflow of capital will continue, investors will still be cautious and the West will keep its anti-Russian sanctions in place, according to Russian state news agency TASS.
However, the ministry argued that the anticipated 0.8% recession would be the lowest point and that growth was likely to resume in 2016, TASS said.
Last week Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev confirmed that September’s 2015 forecast by the ministry stood at 1.2% but said it would be revised downwards though the updated percentage would still be a positive number.
The ministry based its moderate optimism on expectations that the oil price would go up and that the West would mitigate or lift its sanctions next year.
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