By Andrei Skvarsky.
The latest of a series of quarterly surveys commissioned by Sberbank, Russia’s biggest lender, shows consumer confidence among middle-class Russians to have edged down since June.
The overall consumer confidence index based on the latest of the Ivanov Consumer Confidence Tracker surveys shows a dip to -7% from -6% for the second quarter “as inflation, unemployment and ruble depreciation concerns have risen amid geopolitical tension and the stuttering economy”, the bank’s investment arm, Sberbank CIB, said in a statement.
“Ivanov” has been chosen as the designation for the surveys as the commonest Russian family name. The studies, which monitor consumer spending, savings and confidence trends, involve interviews with middle-class Russians.
Food inflation was running at 11.5% year-on-year, according to Ivanovs’ perceptions, though price increases at major public retail chains were just between 6.2% and 6.7%, which “suggests that the value proposition of the largest chains has improved 4-5%,” the statement said.
Price-sensitive Ivanovs made up 69% of customers in September compared with 68% in June.
The proportion of Ivanovs with no savings climbed to 42% in September from 37% in June, and the average share of monthly incomes saved declined to 8.9% from 9.2%.
At the same time, Ivanovs were buying more big-ticket items. The big-ticket purchases index as part of the survey rose to –12% in September from –14% in June, “probably mirroring the population’s inflation and ruble depreciation fears as well as the overall shaky state of the economy”, Sberbank CIB said.
Average monthly wages rose to 30,100 rubles ($746 at today’s exchange rate) in September from 29,500 rubles ($731) in June, which enabled Ivanovs to cut food spending as a share of their budget to 38% from 40%, the bank said.
Impacts of Russia’s ban on some food imports from the West in retaliation for Ukraine-related Western sanctions were felt by only 52% of respondents, in the form of either higher prices or product shortages.
There were, however, greater worries about unemployment.
Unemployment went up slightly between June and September, and 24% of respondents in the latest poll compared with 23% in the second-quarter survey said their employer was firing staff, though the net hiring index stayed unchanged with almost half of respondents in each survey describing headcounts in their company as stable.
Ivanovs were also less upbeat about their employers’ business prospects. The findings suggest that the proportion of Russia’s companies that are likely to grow over the next 12 months has declined to 30% from 31% since June.
The Ivanov surveys, which look at trends in the consumer sectors – retail, banking, telecommunications, media, information technology, real estate and transport, – are made by market research agency Cint on behalf of Sberbank CIB.
Cint questions 2,300 people aged 18 to 65 and living in 164 cities with populations of more than 100,000. It says the findings have a margin of error of less than 2%.
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