By Andrei Skvarsky.
Sberbank, Russia’s biggest lender, says the country’s GDP will most likely show a growth of 0.2% for 2014.
According to an August 13 report, Sberbank CIB, the lender’s investment arm, expects GDP to go up by around 1.5% in 2015. “At this stage, we leave our 2014 GDP growth forecast unchanged at 0.2%, as we have modelled since February,” Sberbank CIB chief economist Evgeny Gavrilenkov and economists Anton Stroutchenevski and Sergei Konygin say in the report.
The report, which makes no mention to the European Union sanctions imposed a fortnight ago on Sberbank and four other state-controlled lenders – VTB, Gazprombank and Russian Agricultural Bank – says consumer demand weakened in June with retail sales edging up by a mere 0.7% year-on-year.
The three economists also say Sberbank CIB expects further deceleration in domestic private consumption growth, “as very expensive consumer debt servicing remains a major impediment”.
Meanwhile, various analysts have been arguing that the effects of Western sanctions on top of woes the Russian economy began experiencing earlier on may result in recession this year.
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