By Andrei Skvarsky. A survey by Sberbank suggests that inflation is a bigger concern for Russians today it was than a few months ago. {{{?}}} Declining unemployment is partially offsetting inflationary concerns, according to Sberbank CIB, the investment arm of Russia’s biggest lender. But inflation was flagged as a major macroeconomic problem by 63% of… Continue Reading
Category Archives: Views
Sberbank says Russia doing better than other emerging markets
By Andrei Skvarsky. At a time when few analysts are upbeat about the current state of Russia’s economy, Sberbank has released a research piece arguing that the country has a set of major advantages over other emerging markets. {{{?}}} “Russia enjoys a current account surplus, is close to fiscal breakeven, and has a flexible currency,… Continue Reading
GUEST ARTICLE: Do IT with Poland – IT sector as powerhouse of Polish economy
By Jakub Smela, Public Relations Manager, M Promotion Agency, Warsaw. A strong Polish representation at this year’s E3 Expo in Los Angeles is a good reason to take a closer look at the dynamically growing Polish sector of new information and communication technologies. It was not without a reason, that during his last visit to… Continue Reading
EAST CAPITAL COMMENT: Turkish growth set to continue
The Turkish stock market has continued to perform well, and is already up 10.1 percent since the beginning of the year. That performance is just a continuation of a trend that has seen the market rise since the beginning of 2012. But for how long can it continue to perform? “Looking at the big picture,… Continue Reading
RenCap says middle income trap the source of Russia’s woes
By Andrei Skvarsky. Russia’s Renaissance Capital argues that the likeliest explanation of Russia’s current economic slowdown is a middle income trap, a situation where a fast-growing economy gets stuck after reaching a certain level of per capita income. “Fast-growing economies, including Russia, eventually slow down as the easy catch-up productivity gains relative to developed economies… Continue Reading
EAST CAPITAL COMMENT: "China: Double-digit growth figures a thing of the past"
By Kristina Sandklef, Macro Economist Asia. The newspaper headlines about China’s slowing economy may spell doom and gloom, but we have faith in the strength of the Chinese economy and believe it has great long-term growth potential – despite the days of double-digit growth probably being a thing of the past. {{{*}}} First quarter figures showed that GDP… Continue Reading
Sberbank: state of Russian economy “not too alarming”
By Andrei Skvarsky. Russia’s biggest lender Sberbank argues that, although the country’s economy appears to be grinding to a halt, the picture is “not too alarming” and growth of 3% or more is still possible this year. The Economics Ministry late last month revised its GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 2.4% from 3.6%. This… Continue Reading
EAST CAPITAL COMMENT: Why Russia is not performing
By Peter Elam Håkansson, Chairman and Head of Public Equity investment team The Russian market has certainly not been generous to investors during the first four months of 2013. We did however see a strong rebound in the last week of April but the Moscow stock exchange is still at a minus so far this year. This… Continue Reading
Goldman Sachs survey: insurers worldwide more upbeat about investment
By Andrei Skvarsky. A survey by Goldman Sachs suggests that insurers worldwide are growing more optimistic about investment opportunities despite the uncertain and challenging 2012 with its low interest rates, and that many are willing to take on more portfolio risk. More than 40% of chief investment officers (CIOs) of insurance companies intend to increase… Continue Reading
Cyprus bailout defended by high-profile French economist Wyplosz
By Andrei Skvarsky. Prominent French economist Charles Wyplosz, at an event hosted by Russia’s biggest lender Sberbank, defended the controversial EU/IMF bailout plan for Cyprus. It’s banks that are to blame for the crisis, and so it’s fair that those who keep money in them should share the burden of it, Professor Wyplosz told The Russia Forum, a… Continue Reading
EAST CAPITAL COMMENT: In Eastern Europe, politics not economics impact risk
By Marcus Svedberg, Chief Economist The global economy is recovering and the risks have decreased, but it remains a fragile recovery – especially in Europe. In Eastern Europe, policies rather than economics exacerbate the swings in global risk appetite. Going forward, I believe the market will continue to focus more on corporate news and major macro… Continue Reading
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMENT: A Few Days in Africa
By Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management. I spent three days in Africa this week, or to be precise, Cape Town and briefly {{{*}}} Johannesburg in South Africa, as well as Lagos and Abuja in Nigeria. I attach the charts from my presentation about Africa’s potential, its challenges, and its current and future position… Continue Reading
Sberbank says consumer confidence in Russia dwindling
By Andrei Skvarsky. Sberbank CIB, the investment arm of Russia’s biggest lender Sberbank, says consumer confidence in Russia has slipped down since January. According to the second Sberbank CIB Ivanov Consumer Confidence Tracker bi-monthly survey, the base index of consumer confidence remains negative, dropping further down to -8% in March from -4% in January. “There… Continue Reading
Swiss bank Lombard Odier: Russian investors to keep clear of Cyprus
By Andrei Skvarsky. Lombard Odier, a Swiss asset management firm, praises the European Union/International Monetary Fund bailout scheme for Cyprus for making bank bondholders “share the pain” of the crisis but warns it will deprive Cypriot banks of a major source of funding and discourage Russians from investing in the country. {{{*}}} “Unprecedented and welcome is the… Continue Reading
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMENT: Is There Method in the Madness?
By Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management (this week’s ‘Viewpoints’). My last week was especially exhausting as there was so much going on and I had to organise so many things. And I wasn’t even travelling! Just trying to keep up with the huge array of things going on everywhere was tough enough, never… Continue Reading
J. P. Morgan: futures markets can help end global food shortages
By Andrei Skvarsky. J.P. Morgan, the US-based bulge bracket investment bank, argues that price benchmarks set in futures markets can help to get rid of distribution and other imbalances that leave 868m people across the world undernourished. {{{*}}} Today’s global food supply exceeds minimum dietary energy requirements by 50%, and the fact that so many people… Continue Reading
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMENT: Cyprus never let a crisis go to waste
From the weekly “Viewpoints” of Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management. So how can it be that a $22bn economy can be the dominant global topic for conversation for a full week? {{{*}}} I am fond of saying that China (at least in 2011) was creating the equivalent of another Greece every 121⁄2 weeks.… Continue Reading
RenCap: Russian economy almost at a standstill, recession looming
Moscow’s Renaissance Capital investment bank argues, citing preliminary statistics from the Russian Economics Ministry, that Russia’s economy has practically stopped growing and is in danger of recession. {{{*}}} Declining prices for commodities such as aluminium, tin, crude oil and copper and output contraction in key industries such as mining, pulp and paper, and electrical equipment,… Continue Reading
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMENT: Will the BRICS Announce a BRICS Development Bank?
By Jim O’Neill, Goldman Sachs Asset Management (weekly “Vewpoints”) Most stock markets enjoyed a further rally last week with a lot of subsequent media attention especially surrounding the succession of record highs in the Dow Jones index in the US, although the S&P is still yet to vault its pre-crisis highs. It wasn’t such a… Continue Reading
Markit says world business, mainly US and Chinese firms, upbeat about 2013
By Andrei Skvarsky. According to Markit, a global financial information services company, {{{*}}} the global business community is today much more upbeat about the year ahead than it was last October, with the United States and China showing the highest optimism. “Worldwide business confidence has revived from the post-crisis low seen late last year, with… Continue Reading
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMENT: From the weekly Viewpoints of Jim O'Neill, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management
European Glory. So yet another year of European dreams comes {{{*}}} to an end for United, and this time in such harsh circumstances. Last Tuesday in Manchester had it all. As I wrote at the time of the draw for the last 16 in the Champions League, for me, it brought back memories as a… Continue Reading
EXCLUSIVE: BCS insists Moscow Exchange shares are good investment
By Andrei Skvarsky. Russia’s CreditBrokerService (BCS) has become {{{*}}} the first broker to launch the research coverage of the stock of the Moscow Exchange, issuing a “buy” recommendation but pointing out that equity trading volumes in Russia for the fourth quarter of 2012 showed a year-on-year drop of 70%. BCS analyst Olga Naydenova suggests a… Continue Reading
East Capital upbeat about Russia’s domestically-, consumer-focused sectors
East Capital, an emerging markets-focused asset manager headquartered in Stockholm, argues {{{*}}} that domestically-oriented and consumer-related sectors offer the best investment opportunities in Russia. According to East Capital’s chief investment officer, Peter Elam Håkansson, today’s Russia is a country with a “strong economy”, one of the world’s strongest balance sheets, domestically-focused sectors experiencing double-digit growth, and a… Continue Reading
FTI Consulting: global business “surprisingly” upbeat about world banking
By Andrei Skvarsky. FTI Consulting, a global business advisory firm, has said it has carried out a poll that suggests the world business community is “surprisingly” optimistic about the global banking industry. {{{*}}} Of more than 1,000 business leaders in major global economies who were questioned in the survey, 89% believed their home country’s banking… Continue Reading
SBERBANK COMMENT: Economic update – sluggish performance
By analysts, Sberbank Investment Research. Growth slowed at end 2012 not just in Russia but also in neighboring Kazakhstan, Belarus and Ukraine. In contrast to Russia, where slowing economic growth has been accompanied by softening consumption growth, the Kazakh, Belarusian and Ukrainian consumer markets remain overheated. {{{*}}} We see serious risk of economic contraction in… Continue Reading
EAST CAPITAL COMMENT: Chinese equities going from strength to strength
By Gustav Rhenman, Portfolio Manager, East Capital. The outlook for Chinese equities remains upbeat after they rallied for the fifth month in a row. Among emerging markets, China stands out thanks to accelerating economic growth, rebounding industrial profits and fresh evidence that the country’s real estate market is not a bubble. {{{*}}} Since September 2012,… Continue Reading
Ukraine’s stock market down 35% in 2012 – East Capital
Ukraine’s stock market was the world’s second worst performer after that of Cyprus last year, slumping by 35%, but can get a boost from a potential new loan from the International Monetary Fund, according to Stockholm-based asset manager East Capital. {{{*}}} Ukraine’s economy, where the main stock market players are mining, energy, engineering and financial… Continue Reading
Sberbank says Russia’s economic growth driven by consumer sectors
{{{?}}} By Andrei Skvarsky. Sberbank has released an extensive body of research arguing that Russia’s economic growth is driven by consumer-related sectors and not by oil and gas, and that those sectors offer vast opportunities to investors. While extractive industries account for two-thirds of Russia’s stock market, and oil and gas dominate the country’s exports,… Continue Reading
SBERBANK the world’s 13th most valuable brand – Brand Finance
By Andrei Skvarsky. {{{?}}} Sberbank’s brand value has earned Russia’s biggest lender 13th place in this year’s Top 500 Banking Brands ranking compiled by Brand Finance, a London-based brand valuation consultancy. The 500-name league table values Sberbank’s brand at $14.16bn compared with the valuation of $10.77bn on the 2012 list, where the Moscow-based firm was… Continue Reading