By Andrei Skvarsky. Russian broker Metropol has hired former Nomura executive Mark Howard as head of its London-based equity sales team and ex-Renaissance Capital and UralSib banker Tim Brenton as a member of the team. Howard, who has more than 15 years of emerging markets experience, was selling Chinese equities for North Square Blue Oak,… Continue Reading
Category Archives: Views
Russia’s AMT Bank struck off
By Andrei Skvarsky. Moscow’s AMT Bank, until 2009 co-owned by major Kazakh lender BTA, has had its licence annulled by Russia’s Central Bank with effect from today. AMT has been failing to comply with “federal laws regulating banking activities” and presenting false accounts, the Central Bank said in a statement. UniCredit analyst Rustam Botashev said… Continue Reading
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMENT: Who would you want in EMU?
By Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Western sovereign debt issues rolled on again last week, with fierce competition between the US and the Euro Area for attention. As President Obama and Congress struggle to reach a budget compromise ahead of the debt ceiling deadline, two ratingagencies made it clear that failure to make… Continue Reading
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMENT: A messy start to July
By Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Just when it seemed things were shifting back to the optimists’ camp, Friday’s news about the state of the world threw another spanner in the works. In addition to a very disappointing US nonfarm payrolls report, Italy came into the spotlight in the European crisis. Subsequently, the earliest of the June… Continue Reading
Putin and Connie the labrador to be Russia’s next tandem, say EM.me readers
By Andrei Skvarsky. The majority of respondents in a recent EmergingMarkets.me online poll expected Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to be Russia’s next president and a vast proportion thought he would have just a figurehead prime minister if he moved back into the Kremlin. The view that “Putin and Connie the labrador” (the premier’s pet dog)… Continue Reading
GUEST COMMENT: Khodorkovsky Trial Exposes Reform Progress
By James Beadle from Market-Melange.com Since 2003 former Yukos executives Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev have been incarcerated in Russia on charges of tax evasion. At present, as their eight year stint enters its final stages, the two are on trial once more, charged with stealing millions of tonnes of oil (reputedly the same oil… Continue Reading
Fund Flows: Sentiment is Finely (Dangerously) Balanced
By Chris Weafer, Chief Strategist at UralSib Capital Waiting for clarity. Fund investors appear to have taken a sanguine view of global market volatility over the past week. They have remained largely on the sidelines while waiting for a clearer picture to emerge. According to the data supplied by EPFR Global, in the week ended… Continue Reading
Troika Dialog: the best investment bank in Russia ?
By Ivan Anderzhanov Troika Dialog has been awarded the gong of best investment bank in Russia in the recent Global Finance awards. In a statement, Troika said it currently leads Russian debt capital market league tables in terms of volume, number of issues and market share. Last we checked, VTB Capital may have had some… Continue Reading
COMMENT: Government mulls protectionist moves to protect industries from ruble strength
By Vladimir Osakovsky, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis and Research at Unicredit Securities Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said that the Russian government might raise import tariffs and subsidize industries to keep Russian industry competitive, Bloomberg reports. He said that the ruble is likely to appreciate over the next several years and the government… Continue Reading
VTB to advertise on the BBC
By Ivan Anderzhanov In a further sign of a thawing in Anglo-Russo relations, VTB Capital is to sponsor a major series looking at Russian business to be shown on the venerable British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC). The series, which will begin transmitting this month, will focus on business across Russia, examining people, companies and products. VTB… Continue Reading
COMMENT: What happens with Russian market in May & June 2010 ?
By Mark Rubinstein, Deputy Head of Research at IFC Metropol Traditionally, May and June are not the strongest months for the Russian market. In the past four years, only once, in 2008, the market was able to demonstrate growth over this period. But I think that this year will be an “exception” again, and the… Continue Reading
Investors ready to jump on the Russia sovereign Eurobond wagon
By Andrei Skvarsky Russian finance officials are meeting investors in London and Singapore today to market Russia’s first sovereign Eurobond issue since 1998, with analysts saying there is a high appetite for the issue as the risk of a Russian default on loans is at an all-time low. Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Russia’s Alfa… Continue Reading
Inflows into Russian funds/ETFs continue for the eighth straight week
Vladimir Kuznetsov, Equity Analyst from Unicredit Securities Inflows into Russia-dedicated funds and ETFs continued for the eighth straight week in the week to 7 April and reached USD 1.48bn YTD, EPFR data shows. The recent week’s inflow totaled USD 116mn and was completely provided by equity funds, as ETFs showed a slight outflow of USD… Continue Reading
Inflows into Russian funds/ETFs continue for the sixth straight week
By Vladimir Kuznetsov, Equity Analyst At UniCredit Securities Thanks to the sixth straight week of net inflows into Russian funds and ETFs in the week to 25 March 2010, the total volume of net attracted cash YTD reached almost $1.3bn (vs. $2.0bn for all of 2009), EPFR Global data shows. On the other hand, weekly… Continue Reading
COMMENT: Kazakhstani non-performing loans continue to decline
By Rustam Botashev, Equity Analyst at UniCredit Securities Kazakhstan’s Financial Supervisory Agency (FSA) published preliminary banking statistics for 2009. Our view: The banking sector’s losses for the year totalled KZT 2,837bn ($19.1bn), or KZT 127bn ($0.9bn) excluding the two defaulted banks (BTA Bank and Alliance Bank). Retail loans declined by 4.8% yoy and corporate loans… Continue Reading
Can Hong Kong dislodge London as the main destination for Russian IPOs ?
By Marcus Williams in London Russian aluminum maker UC Rusal today reportedly raised $2.24 billion from its Hong Kong and Paris initial public offerings, after the company priced the shares around the middle of the range indicated in marketing literature. Bankers said the listing could led to a trickle of further Russian listings in Hong… Continue Reading
Emerging Manager Firm Shares Fundamentals of Success
By James LaDue from Emerging Manager Focus SCO Capital Partners fund managers have been posting overall gains throughout the past 3 years. I wanted to get more information from the firm based on its success as an emerging manager firm. When I contacted the organization, I was put in touch with John Doss, partner. Emerging… Continue Reading
Key investment themes for 2009 and outlook for 2010
Jerome Booth, Head of Research at Ashmore Investment Management comments on the global backdrop for emerging markets over the past year and forecasts an encouraging future for EM asset classes. Reviewing some of the key themes in 2009: · Whilst there was global disruption to cross-border finance, the main negative impact on selected emerging countries… Continue Reading
Goldman goes long (and late) on Russian equities
By Marcus Williams Research strategists at Goldman Sachs are going long on Russian equities in 2010 on the basis that the country’s growth rate will rebound sharply. Goldman is forecasting that real GDP will rebound to +4.5% in 2010 and accelerate later in the year after a steep 9.5% decline this year. Compared with other… Continue Reading
COMMENT Russia 2010: Worth A Tactical Look
By James Beadle, Global & Emerging Market Strategist, Market-Melange.com Russia’s under-performance relative to its BRIC peers is justified and well-explained. Yet, it also creates upside potential. Russia is beginning a new development phase, which creates opportunity and makes it an attractive buy for 2010. The potential for decisive progress is limited and many systematic problems… Continue Reading
Exclusive: LSE Russian team sees future for dual listings
By Jason Corcoran in Moscow The London Stock Exchange believes dual Russian stock listings in Moscow and London will endure in spite of plans to curb the amount firms can sell overseas. The new rules, which are due to come into force from January 1, aim to restrict domestic companies from running to foreign exchanges… Continue Reading
COMMENT: Russian banks: back to the future
By Rustam Botashev, equities analyst at UniCredit Securities Pre-crisis profits already priced in for VTB, but Sberbank and VZRZ still have room for positive surprises VTB promises to reach pre-crisis profits in 2010; we see this as possible for all banks under coverage. Bankers are suddenly talking about making solid earnings in 2010E; VTB even… Continue Reading
COMMENT: Russian Reform – A Realistic Prospect?
By James Beadle, Global & Emerging Market Strategist, Market-Melange.com Recent reports of Kremlin-infighting are partially accurate. Expect sharp swings in investor sentiment, creating good opportunities to make money, but no radical changes to Russia’s economic & political system. Although the mass-media remain sceptical, in-depth analytical sources and business intelligence groups – such as Stratfor –… Continue Reading
COMMENT: Brazil’s tax on foreign equity investment may divert cash to Russia
By Julia Bushueva, strategist at Unicredit Securities Last week’s decision by the Brazilian government to reintroduce a 2% tax on foreign investment in local stocks and bonds in order to prevent bubbles and cool down the market is likely to boost trading in Brazilian ADRs, we believe, but may divert cash to the Russian stock… Continue Reading
COMMENT: Tymoshenko announces resolution roadmap for Ukraine's two large banks
By Yevhen Hrebeniuk, Senior Analyst at Troika Dialog Ukraine Ukraine’s Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has outlined the resolution approaches that are set to be approved by the cabinet and applied to the two remaining large banks that have yet to be recapitalized: Nadra Bank and Ukrprombank. The government will transfer Ukrprombank’s deposits and valuable assets… Continue Reading
COMMENT: Government expects the start of economic recovery in 2H09
Vladimir Osakovsky, Head of Strategy and Research at Unicredit Securities at Moscow. Russian Minister of Economic Development Elvira Nabiullina said that the Russian economy is ready to recover and expects real GDP to grow by 3.9%-4.5% hoh in 2H09, Vedomosti reports. Nabiullina’s comments come after similar optimistic statements from First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov… Continue Reading
COMMENT: Watch Kazakhstan for Russian banks’ path out of crisis
By Rustam Botashev, Equity Analyst at Unicredit Securities Total non-performing loans (NPLs) in Kazakhstan reached 30.8% as of 1 July, but a more manageable 14.4% excluding BTA and Alliance, and we expect a gradual economic recovery to keep banks from being washed away in an NPL flood. The aggregate 30.8% figure is skewed by the… Continue Reading
COMMENT: Russia’s equity market – rising like a phoenix
Angelika Millendorfer, Head of Emerging Markets Equities at Raiffeisen Capital Management. Russia’s equity market was one of the biggest losers last year. But since the beginning of 2009, it has been one of the top performers even though a strong correction swept the market in June and July. So far prices are up by around… Continue Reading
COMMENT: Russia may tap Wellbeing fund to finance budget deficit in 2010
By Vladimir Osakovsky, Head of Strategy and Research for UniCredit Securities. Russia might start to use its second sovereign wealth fund – Wellbeing Fund ($89.9bn as of 1 July 2009) to finance the federal budget deficit in 2010. To finance a roughly 3,000bn roubles ($98bn) federal budget deficit in 2009, the Finance Ministry is actively… Continue Reading